The Phoenix Mercury and Washington Mystics both made the playoffs in 2015, but only one will be making postseason plans this season. With only a few days left in the WNBA’s historic 20th season, just one playoff spot–the eighth and final one–is left up for grabs, and the Mercury and Mystics are battling for the honor. Here’s what to watch for over the last couple of games.

Phoenix Mercury

Record: 14-18
Place: 8th
Games Left: 2 (vs. Seattle – 9/15, at San Antonio – 9/18)

Washington Mystics

Record: 13-19
Place: 9th
Games Remaining: 2 (at Atlanta – 9/15, vs. Connecticut – 9/18)

Tiebreaker:

Phoenix owns tiebreaker by virtue of their 3-0 record against Washington this year.

Who Has The Upper Hand?

The Mercury certainly have the upper hand in the race for eight, as their lead, plus tiebreaker, over the Mystics means the only way Washington gets in is if they win both of their remaining games and Phoenix loses both of their remaining games.

In terms of the schedule, Phoenix’s road is also slightly easier. Seattle will be a tough contest Thursday night, but they only have to win one game to make the playoffs, and they finish the season with 7-25 San Antonio, a young team beset by injuries. In their two meetings this year, the Mercury have beat the Stars by 15 and 19 points, respectively.

Meanwhile, the Mystics will have to go through a playoff team in Atlanta, and a hardworking Connecticut bunch who have been playing very solid ball in the second half of the season. The one thing in Washington’s favor, is they’re clearly capable of beating these two teams, going 2-0 against both of them so far this year (though both Connecticut games went to overtime).

Key Stat

Defense. Defense. Defense. Despite both being in the top four defensively last season, these teams have struggled on that end this year. The Mercury enter the last two games with the 10th ranked defensive rating at 104.7 points allowed per 100 possessions, and the Mystics aren’t far ahead, their 104.1 defensive rating leaving them in ninth.

We have seen stretches of strong defensive work from both sides, however. Such as when the Mystics won four out of five games to close out June, and held their opponent under 70 points in each of those four wins. Or, for example, just out of the Olympic break, when the Mercury won three straight games while not allowing more than 72 points.

These teams have shown they have the talent and personnel to lock down on the defensive end. If they want to secure a place in the playoffs, they’ll have to do that again.

Key Players

Brittney Griner

Griner has been a machine lately, averaging 20.3 points, 10 rebounds, and 4.6 blocks over the last three games. She’s always going to provide a towering presence inside, but when she’s playing like she has been recently, it makes the Mercury a much more dangerous team.

Emma Meesseman

The young Belgian forward has been a steadying presence for the Mystics this year, averaging 15 points and 5.5 rebounds, while playing and starting every game. Her ability to stretch the floor–shooting a league-best 45.5 percent from three–is an important tool for the Mystics’ offense.